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For the first time, the freight rate fell across the whole route. Is the third quarter a turning point?

Time:2022-07-01 Publisher:Kevin Num:2366

At present, many countries in the world have experienced high inflation. Especially in the United States, some importers reduced their orders, so shipping prices began to fall.

On June 30, British Airways consulting agency Drewry released the latest issue of the world container comprehensive freight index (WCI), which showed that the index continued to fall by 3% this week to US $7066.03 /FEU.

It is worth noting that the spot freight of the index, which is based on 8 major routes in Asia and the United States, Asia and Europe, and Europe and the United States, fell comprehensively for the first time.

The WCI composite index fell 3% this week, down 16% from the same period in 2021. The WCI average composite index evaluated by deluli so far this year is $8421 /FEU, which is still $4930 higher than the five-year average of $3490 /FEU.

The spot freight rates of the following routes: Los Angeles Shanghai, Rotterdam Shanghai, New York Rotterdam and Rotterdam New York all decreased to varying degrees.

The spot freight rates of Shanghai Los Angeles and Shanghai Rotterdam decreased by 4%, 16% and 24% respectively compared with the same period.

Drury expects freight rates to continue to decline in the coming weeks. The freight rate will decline rapidly from the second half of the year.

According to its estimates, the growth of global container transport demand will decelerate from 7% in 2021 to 4% and 3% in 2022 and 2023. The third quarter may be an important turning point for the shipping industry.

From the perspective of overall supply-demand relationship, in 2021, the loading capacity of ships will increase by 5%, the port congestion will cause 26% efficiency loss, and the actual supply growth will be reduced by only 4%.

However, in 2022 and 2023, with the extensive vaccination, the chain effect that originally restricted port loading and unloading has been significantly alleviated since the first quarter.

The truck and multimodal transport camps are gradually restored, the efficiency of container handling is increased, and the speed of ships is improved.

It is worth noting that once the demand declines in the third quarter, the transportation efficiency is expected to be further improved. With the gradual recovery of the 26% efficiency loss caused by port congestion, the actual supply growth will accelerate to 25% and 13% in the same period.

Under normal circumstances, the third quarter is the peak season of traditional shipping. Some experts said that according to the past practice, European and American retailers will start stocking in July and August.

But this year, many retailers are afraid to place orders, especially the demand for unsealing in Shanghai is not as good as expected.

It is difficult to reproduce the soaring freight rates in the peak shipping season last year. I'm afraid the trend of shipment volume and freight rate will become clearer in mid and late July.

In addition, according to the data released by Shanghai Airlines Exchange last week, the Shanghai export container freight index (SCFI) index fell for two consecutive weeks, falling 5.83 points to 4216.13 points last week, or 0.13%.

The freight rates of the three ocean routes continue to be adjusted. Among them, the eastern line of the United States fell by 2.67%, falling below the $10000 mark for the first time since the end of July last year.

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